Assessing the accuracy of land cover change with imperfect ground reference data

The ground data used as a reference in the validation of land cover change products are often not an ideal gold standard but degraded by error. The effects of ground reference data error on the accuracy of land cover change detection and the accuracy of estimates of the extent of change was evaluated. Twelve data sets were simulated to allow the exploration of the impacts of a spectrum of ground data imperfections on the estimation of the producer’s and user’s accuracy of change as well as of change extent. Simulated data were used since this ensured that the actual properties of the data were known and to exclude effects due to other sources of ground reference data error; although the impacts of simulated reference data on two real confusion matrices is also illustrated. The imperfections evaluated ranged from the inclusion of small amounts of known error into the ground reference data through to the extreme situation in which ground data were absent. The results show that even small amounts of error in the ground reference data can introduce large error into studies of land cover change by remote sensing and reinforce the desire to avoid the expression ground truth as this might imply that the data are a gold standard reference. The effect of reference data imperfections was dependent on the degree of association between the errors in the cross tabulated data sets. For